A British Columbia government report foresees more than 3,400 fatalities and more than 10,000 injuries if an earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 strikes off Vancouver Island.

The scenario of such a “megathrust” quake also describes costs of $128 billion, the destruction of 18,000 buildings and extensive damage to 10,000.

The analysis is part of the B.C. disaster and climate risk assessment, dated October 2025, and says such a quake is “one of the more likely earthquake scenarios in B.C.”

It says the heaviest damage could occur on Vancouver Island and a roughly 20-kilometre band including Vancouver along the mainland, from the U.S. border to the Sunshine Coast.

The report foresees the triggering of a tsunami that would hit the west coast of Vancouver Island 10 to 20 minutes after the quake, and the east coast of Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland some 30 to 60 minutes later.

It says that an earthquake would also come with major aftershocks, widespread landslides, liquefaction damage, fires and floods.

The report says that the last comparable earthquake in the region happened in 1700, and pegs the likelihood of such an extreme event between two to 10 per cent within the next 30 years.